Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

Prices of safe-haven assets traded at almost their highest levels in recent years today, off the back of increasing fears of significant slowdown in global economic growth in 2019. Price of gold in the international market rose to ca $1,420.70 per ounce while yield levels on the U.S. 10yr, German 10yr, Japanese 10yr and French 10yr treasuries further declined to +1.953%, -0.386%, -0.162% and -0.1057% respectively. This comes as data from the U.S. indicated non-farm jobs created in June rose by ca 102,000 month-on-month, lower than analysts expectation of ca 135,000, further raising investors’ fears of negative impact of current global tensions on growth in the world’s largest economy and increasing expectation for a possible rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank at its next meeting later in July.

With persisting uncertainties of current trade negotiations, expectation of a higher negative impact on global economic growth, rising risk-off sentiments and drive for safe-haven assets by investors, with value of funds in negative yielding government treasuries of Developed Economies (DMs) rising to ca $12.5 trillion in May 2019 from ca $7.9 trillion in December 2018, we expect investors to maintain strong appetite for safe-haven assets through Q3 2019.

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Banking system liquidity opened positive today at ca ₦779.50bn much higher than ₦477.30bn it opened at yesterday. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) did not conduct an Open Market Operation (OMO) auction today.

Treasury Bills
The treasury bills secondary market was aggressively bullish today, buoyed by positive liquidity and a lack of treasury bills supply by the Central Bank through Open Market Operations (OMO) auction. There was demand across the curve especially at the long end of the curve, with players also anticipating lower stop rates at today’s primary market auction. Average yields shed ca -6bps day-on-day, with the biggest moves on the 11 June 2020 paper which shed ca -60bps to close at 11.50%. Kindly find below results from today’s PMA:

Tenor 91-Days 182-Days 364-Days
Maturity Date: 03-Oct-19 02-Jan-20 02-Jul-20
Amount Offered: ₦10.000 billion ₦20.000 billion ₦58.857 billion
Subscription ₦10.228 billion ₦64.177 billion ₦315.766 billion
Amount Allotted: ₦10.0000 billion ₦20.000 billion ₦58.857 billion
Range of bids 9.3000% – 14.0000% 11.4000% – 15.0000% 11.5000% – 15.0000%
Stop Rate 10.5000% 11.7000% 11.9100%

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates marginally traded lower day-on-day at 3.29% and 4.00% from 6.57% and 7.21%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
The bonds secondary market was bullish today, as investors continue to seek higher yielding risk-free assets. Market witnessed demand across the curve particularly the short-to-mid dated maturities. Average yields shed ca -3bps day-on-day with the biggest mover being the April 2023 maturity which closed at 14.03% from 14.41%.

Eurobond

Bullish sentiments in the nation’s Eurobonds market today, with demand seen across the curve. While total volumes and activity levels were generally low, partly due to a U.S holiday tomorrow, average yields shed ca -2bps day-on-day, with the January 2049 paper closing at 7.93% from 7.95%.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market closed on a negative note today, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) marginally shedding ca -0.07% day-on-day to close at 29,375.25pts, and market’s year-to-date returns at -6.54%. This was due to losses in Zenith Bank Plc (-1.03%) and Dangote Cement Plc (-1.61%).

The NSE Banking and Oil & Gas indices shed ca -59bps and -71bps respectively, while the NSE Industrial and Consumer goods indices gained ca +165bps and +48bps. Morison Industries Plc led the volume chart with 44.54m units while Zenith Bank Plc led the value chart with trades worth ₦541.14mn.

The Naira depreciated day-on-day against the dollar in the interbank at ₦306.95/$1 from ₦306.90/$1 today. In the parallel market, it remained stable against both the dollar and Pound Sterling at ₦360/$ and ₦463/₤1 respectively, but depreciated against the Euro at ₦410/€1 from ₦408/€1. The FMDQ Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) Fixing rate depreciated day-on-day at ₦360.42/$1 from ₦360.35/$1.

Crude oil prices appreciated today, as data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) showed crude inventory declined by ca 1.1 million barrels last week vs market analyst expectation of ca 3 million barrels. Brent crude oil price gained ca +2.40% day-on-day at $63.90pb, while WTI gained ca +1.90% day-on-day at $57.32pb, as at report time. Spot gold gained ca +0.87% at $1,420.40 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
BOCGAS 4.54 0.41 +9.93%
ACADEMY 0.34 0.03 +9.68%
WAPIC 0.47 0.04 +9.30%
JAPAULOIL 0.25 0.02 +8.70%
OANDO 3.95 0.30 +8.22%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
MORISON 0.54 -0.06 -10.00%
FIDSON 4.55 -0.50 -9.90%
MOBIL 158.00 -17.00 -9.71%
MBENEFIT 0.20 -0.02 -9.09%
JBERGER 19.95 -1.95 -8.90%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
03-Jul-19 02-Jun-19 Change in Rates
92 Days 10.42% 10.48% -0.06%
183 Days- 11.86% 11.72% 0.14%
344 Days. 11.50% 12.10% -0.60%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 03 July 2019
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
03-Jul-19 02-Jun-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 13.10% 13.10% 0.00%
5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 14.03% 14.41% -0.38%
10 yrs: 13.98% 23-Feb 2028 14.24% 14.38% -0.14%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 14.48% 14.53% -0.24%
30 yrs: 14.80% 26-Apr 2049 14.43% 14.65% -0.22%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 03 July 2019
Benchmark FGN EuroBond Yields
03-Jul-19 02-Jun-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 3.86% 3.86% -0.03%
5 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 4.68% 4.69% -0.01%
10 yrs: NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 6.32% 6.34% -0.02%
20 yrs: NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 7.40% 7.41% -0.01%
30 yrs: NGERIA 9.248 01/21/49 7.93% 7.95% -0.02%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 03 July 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 13.16% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
29-Aug-19 57 10.70% 10.88%
17-Oct-19 106 10.95% 11.31%
07-Nov-19 127 11.10% 11.55%
16-Jan-20 197 11.25% 11.98%
Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (May 2019) 11.40 (+0.26% ytd)
PMI (June 2019) 57.40
MPR (%) 13.5 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 63.90 (+2.40% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 45.038 (+1.42% ytd)
GDP % (Q1 2019) +2.01% (Q4 2018: +2.38% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 29,375.25 (-0.07% d/d; -6.54% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 12.95

Financial Markets Update – 03 JULY 2019

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