Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

Government bond treasuries of developed economies declined to their lowest month-to-date, with yields on the 10yr U.S. bond, 10yr German bond, 10yr UK bond and 10yr French bond all dropping to ca +2.681%, +0.122%, +1.224% and +0.5057% respectively today. This comes as the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to meet on Thursday, with investors’ expectation of a reduced outlook for economic growth in the Eurozone in 2019 after a Bloomberg report indicated the Apex bank was considering a fresh round of longer-tenored stimulus for banks in the zone, to boost lending and economic activities.

 

With economic growth in the Eurozone for Q4 2018 at its lowest in 4years on significant negative impact of global financial crisis, uncertainties of Brexit and U.S./China trade tensions, we expect growth in the zone to remain challenged in the first half of 2019. We also expect the Apex bank to hold off raising its benchmark interest rate in Q4 2019 as earlier indicated, should growth rate remain challenged through 2019.

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Liquidity in the banking system remained positive today, opening at ca ₦111.64bn. There was no Open Market Operation (OMO) auction conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.

Treasury Bills
A relatively bearish trading day in the treasury bills secondary market, with sell-offs seen mostly at the mid-end of the curve. Average rates gained ca +5bps day-on-day, with the 16 May maturity trading the most to close at 11.51% from 8.90%.

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates dropped day-on-day to 8.83% and 9.75% from 9.33% and 10.42%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
A very quiet trading day in the bonds secondary market today, with some sell-off seen particularly at the mid-to-long end of the curve. Average yields rose ca +3bps day-on-day, with the February 2028 maturity trading the most to close at 14.60% from 14.28%.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market declined after 3 consecutive trading days of gains, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) losing ca -0.16% day-on-day to close at 32,121.74pts, with market’s year-to-date returns at +2.20%. This was largely due to price loses in Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (-3.57%) and Zenith Bank Plc (-0.81%).

The NSE Banking index gained ca +3bps, while the NSE Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods and Industrial indices all lost ca -173bps, -5bps and -135bps respectively. Zenith Bank Plc led both the volume and value charts with 45.37m units traded at ₦1.113bn.

The Naira remained stable against the dollar at the interbank market window today, at ₦306.90/$1. In the parallel market, it remained stable against the Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro at ₦360/$1, ₦470/₤1 and ₦408/€1 respectively. The Naira appreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window at ₦360.29/$1 from ₦360.84/$1.

Crude oil prices declined today, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report a weekly rise in U.S. crude inventories by 7.1 million barrels vs analyst expectation of ca 1.2 million barrels. This was partly offset by a drop in refined Gasoline stockpile of ca 4.2 million. Brent crude oil price dropped ca -0.36% at $65.62pb, while WTI crude declined ca -1.06% at $55.96pb, as at report time. Spot gold gained ca +0.23% day-on-day at $1,287.60 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
CHIPLC 0.28 0.02 +7.69%
JAIZBANK 0.63 0.03 +5.77%
ACCESS 6.10 0.10 +1.67%
UCAP 3.30 0.05 +1.54%
GUARANTY 37.95 0.35 +0.93%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
MCNICHOLS 0.54 -0.06 -10.00%
ETRANZACT 2.64 -0.29 -9.90%
CCNN 19.00 -1.00 -5.00%
SOVRENINS 0.25 -0.01 -3.85%
HONYFLOUR 1.30 -0.15 -3.70%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
06-Mar-19 05-Mar-19 Change in Rates
85Days 10.39% 10.39% 0.00%
148Days 12.05% 12.05% 0.00%
337Days 13.44% 13.08% 0.36%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 06 March 2019
*T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
06-Mar-19 05-Mar-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 14.66% 14.69% -0.03%
5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 14.67% 14.35% 0.32%
10 yrs: 16.29% 17 Mar 2027 14.64% 14.25% 0.39%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 14.23% 14.13% 0.10%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 06 March 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 13.28% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
01-Aug-19 148 9.70% 10.10%
17-Oct-19 225 13.05% 14.19%
07-Nov-19 246 12.95% 14.19%
16-Jan-20 316 12.75% 14.33%

 

Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (January 2019) 11.37 (-0.61% ytd)
PMI (February 2019) 57.10
MPR (%) 14 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 65.62 (-0.36% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 42.32 (-1.86% ytd)
GDP % (Q4 2018) +2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 32,121.74 (+0.16% d/d; +2.20% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 11.98

Financial Markets Update – 05 March 2019

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