Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

Global crude oil prices rallied today, with Brent crude oil price gaining ca 1.17% day-on-day at $66.51 per day, as top oil exporter in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – Saudi Arabia indicated its support for maintaining current agreed oil output cut by OPEC till its meeting in June 2019. This comes as a Reuters report indicated the OPEC’s top producer was set to cut its April supplies below current 10 million barrels per day (mbpd) and as the number of rigs drilling for new oil production in the U.S. declined for 3rd consecutive week, dropping 9 rigs to 834 levels.

 

We expect a positive reaction to lift crude oil prices this week, as investors look forward to the announcement of a possible U.S./China trade deal. However, we expect this to be subdued by markets expectation of slower global crude oil demand, with Chinese auto sales dropping for an 8th consecutive month in February and on expectation of a slowdown in economic growth in the world’s largest economies in 2019.

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Banking system liquidity remained positive today, opening at ca .149.23bn. There was no OMO auction conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.

Treasury Bills
A relatively quiet trading day in the treasury bills secondary market today, with average rates rising ca +1bps day-on-day. The 09 May 2019 maturity traded the most to close at 10.45% from 10.75%.

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates rose day-on-day to 10.83% and 11.58% from 9.17% and 10.08%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
A relatively quiet trading day in the bonds secondary market today. The March 2036 maturity traded the most to close at 14.31% from 14.33%, as average yield lost ca -1bps day-on-day.

Eurobonds

A more active trading day on improved demand, particularly at the long-end of the curve. Average yield lost ca -13bps day-on-day, with the February 2038 and January 2049 maturities closing ca -18bps and -15bps below previous day’s levels.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market depreciated for a 4th consecutive trading day, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) losing ca -0.90% day-on-day to close at 31,636.66pts, with market’s year-to-date returns at +0.66%. This was largely due to price depreciation in Nestle Nigeria Plc (-1.99%).

The NSE Consumer Goods, Banking and Industrial indices all lost ca -68bps, -287bps and -44bps respectively, while NSE Oil & Gas remained flat. First Bank of Nigeria Holding Plc led the volume chart with 34.05m units while Nestle Nigeria Plc led the value chart with trades worth ₦720.919mn.

The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the interbank market window today, at .306.95/$1 from 306.90/$1. In the parallel market, it remained stable against the Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro at .360/$1, .472/£1 and .407/€1 respectively. The Naira depreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window at .360.25/$1 from .360.46/$1.

Crude oil prices appreciated today, on continued support by Saudi Arabia to production-cut by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and as the number of rigs drilling for new oil production in the U.S. fell by nine to 834. Brent crude oil price gained ca +1.32% at $66.61pb, while WTI crude gained ca +1.32% at $56.81pb, as at report time. Spot gold lost ca -0.50% day-on-day at $1,292.80 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
CADBURY 12.10 1.10 +10.00%
MBENEFIT 0.25 0.02 +8.70%
NASCON 21.70 1.70 +8.50%
UNIONDAC 0.30 0.01 +3.45%
NPFMCRFBK 1.60 0.05 +3.23%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
CORNERST 0.21 -0.02 -8.70%
STERLNBANK 2.15 -0.20 -8.51%
ABBEYBDS 0.90 -0.08 -8.16%
JAPAULOIL 0.20 -0.01 -4.76%
WAPIC 0.40 -0.02 -4.76%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
11-Mar-19 08-Mar-19 Change in Rates
80Days                                    . 11.01% 11.01% 0.00%
143Days 12.17% 12.17% 0.00%
332Days 13.27% 13.14% 0.13%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 11 March 2019
*T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
11-Mar-19 08-Mar-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 14.75% 14.83% -0.08%
5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 14.58% 14.71% -0.13%
10 yrs: 16.29% 17 Mar 2027 14.54% 14.02% 0.52%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037    . 14.29% 14.25% 0.04%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 11 March 2019
Benchmark FGN Eurobond Yields
11-Mar-19 08-Mar-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 4.71% 4.71% 0.00%
5 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 5.60% 5.65% -0.05%
10 yrs: NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 6.87% 7.01% -0.14%
20 yrs: NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 7.94% 8.12% -0.18%
30 yrs: NGERIA 9.248 01/21/49 8.43% 8.58% -0.15%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 11 March 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 13.28% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
01-Aug-19 143 11.60% 12.15%
17-Oct-19 220 12.85% 13.93%
07-Nov-19 241 12.85% 14.04%
16-Jan-20 311 12.70% 14.24%

 

Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (January 2019) 11.37 (-0.61% ytd)
PMI (February 2019) 57.10
MPR (%) 14 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 66.61 (+1.32% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 42.32 (-1.86% ytd)
GDP % (Q4 2018) +2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 31,636.66 (-0.90% d/d; +0.66% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 11.80

Financial Markets Update – 11 March 2019

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