Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

Crude oil prices appreciated today, rising ca 1% during trade as a Reuters Survey of crude oil output for February, indicated a 2nd consecutive month of decline in output from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Crude oil output dropped to a 4-year low, dropping ca 300,000 barrels per day in February. This comes as trade negotiations between the world’s largest economies, U.S. and China appear close to deal that could reverse tariffs on ca $250 billion of imports from either countries.

The governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank (CBN), Mr. Godwin Emefiele is expected proceed on a 3-month terminal leave beginning in March, a Reuters report indicated today. This comes as the 5-year tenure of the CBN governor comes to an end in June, with possible changes to the current monetary policy stance of the CBN.

We expect continued positive sentiments of further drop in output from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and possible reduction in Shale output from the U.S. as new oil rig counts dropped to its lowest in 9-months, will further support crude oil price, with Brent crude expected at ca $65 – $70 per barrel in the near term. We also expect a rise in financial markets uncertainties in the domestic market in the near term, as investors evaluate the possible implications of a change at the helm of the nation’s Apex bank, particularly on interest rate direction and FX stability.

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Liquidity in the banking system opened positive today, at ca ₦288.64bn. There was an Open Market Operation (OMO) auction conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.

Treasury Bills
A relatively less active Trading day in the treasury bills secondary market, with the announcement of an Open Market Operation (OMO) auction by the Central Bank (CBN). Average rates gained ca +12bps day-on-day, with the 20 February maturity trading the most to close at 13.13% from 13.10%. Please find below a summary of the results of the OMO auction held today:

Tenor 94-Days 192-Days
Maturity Date: 06-Jun-19 12-Sep-19
Amount Offered: ₦ 100.00 billion ₦ 100.00 billion
Subscription: ₦ 70.84 billion ₦ 156.18 billion
Amount Allotted: ₦ 70.84 billion ₦ 113.20 billion
Range of bids: 11.8000% – 11.9000% 13.1000% – 14.3000%
Stop Rates 11.9000% 13.4800%


Bank Placements

Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates dropped day-on-day to 14.00% and 14.92% from 16.33% and 17.42%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
A relatively quiet trading day in the bonds secondary market today. Average yield rose ca +20bps day-on-day, with the March 2036 maturity trading the most to close at 14.13% from 14.04%.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market appreciated for a 2nd consecutive trading day, on the back of gains in highly capitalized stocks as Dangote Cement Plc (+0.20%), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (+4.79%) and Zenith Bank Plc (+2.30%). The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) gained ca +0.95% day-on-day to close at 32,129.94pts, with market’s year-to-date returns at +2.23%.

The NSE Consumer Goods, Industrial and Banking indices all gained ca +43bps, +31bps and +266bps respectively, while the NSE Oil & Gas, remained unchanged. Diamond Bank Plc led the volume chart with 33.03m units while Zenith Bank Plc led the value chart with trades worth ₦703.1mn.

The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the interbank market window today, at ₦306.90/$1 from ₦306.85/$1. In the parallel market, it remained stable against the Dollar and Euro at ₦360/$1 and ₦408/€1 day-on-day respectively, while appreciating against the Pound Sterling at ₦470/₤1 from ₦472/₤1. The Naira appreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window at ₦360.80/$1 from ₦361.13/$1.

Crude oil prices appreciated today, on reports of continued production cut by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for February. Brent crude oil price rose ca +0.45% at $65.36pb, while WTI crude gained ca +0.79% at $56.24pb, as at report time. Spot gold lost ca -0.73% day-on-day at $1,289.70 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
MCNICHOLS 0.56 0.05 +9.80%
CUTIX 2.25 0.20 +9.76%
NPFMCRFBK 1.58 0.14 +9.72%
WEMABANK 0.84 0.07 +9.09%
SOVRENINS 0.25 0.02 +8.70%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
PZ 12.15 -1.30 -9.67%
LIVESTOCK 0.61 -0.06 -8.96%
CHIPLC 0.26 -0.02 -7.14%
LAWUNION 0.52 -0.03 -5.45%
UCAP 3.25 -0.10 -2.99%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
27-Feb-19 26-Feb-19 Change in Rates
87Days 10.39% 10.39% 0.00%
150Days 12.05% 12.05% 0.00%
339Days 13.64% 13.32% 0.32%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 04 February 2019
*T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
04-Feb-19 01-Feb-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 14.47% 14.44% 0.03%
5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 14.32% 14.23% 0.11%
10 yrs: 16.29% 17 Mar 2027 14.06% 14.13% -0.07%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 14.15% 13.84% 0.31%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 04 February 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 13.28% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
01-Aug-19 150 9.70% 10.10%
17-Oct-19 227 12.70% 13.79%
07-Nov-19 248 12.65% 13.84%
16-Jan-20 318 12.70% 14.28%

 

Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (January 2019) 11.37 (-0.61% ytd)
PMI (January 2019) 58.50
MPR (%) 14 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 65.36 (+0.45% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 42.32 (-1.86% ytd)
GDP % (Q4 2018) +2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 32,129.94 (+0.95% d/d; +2.23% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 11.98

Financial Markets Update – 04 March 2019

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