Financial Markets Today
Global financial markets traded very volatile today, on further escalation of U.S./China trade tensions with the Chinese government announcing new retaliatory sets of tariffs on ca $60 billion worth of imports from the U.S beginning 01 June 2019. This comes after last Friday’s implementation by the U.S. of an higher 25% tariff on ca $200 billion worth of imports from China and the apparent collapse of previous trade talks between the world’s largest economies, with investors seeking safety in
treasuries of developed economies while global equities declined as U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500, NASDAQ, German DAX, French CAC and Japanese NIKKEI all lost ca -2.46%, -2.45%, -3.21%, -1.52%, -1.22% and -0.72% respectively.
We expect current escalating tensions between U.S. and China to further raise global economic growth uncertainties for 2019, with fears of possible rise in risk-off sentiments and increased demand for government treasuries of Developed Economies (DMs) in the near term. We also expect this to negatively impact global crude oil prices in the near term, with Brent Crude oil price dropping to ca $70 per barrel.
MONEY MARKETS
CAPITAL MARKETS
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
COMMODITIES
Banking system liquidity opened positive today at ca ₦121.6bn down from ca ₦609bn on Friday. There was no Open Market Operation (OMO) auction by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today, however, Banks had to make provisions for Wholesale FX Intervention.
Treasury Bills
The treasury bills secondary market kicked off the week on a rather quiet note today, with some demand on the mid-dated maturities. In the absence of an Open Market Operation (OMO) auction by the Central Bank (CBN), average rates shed ca -4bps day-on-day, with the 26 September 2019 maturity closing at 12.24% from 12.36%.
Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates traded higher day-on-day at 16.00% and 16.71% from 9.14% and 10.00%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
Bonds
The bonds secondary market began the week on a quiet note today, with few transactions seen on mid-to-long dated maturities. Average yields gained ca +2bps day-onday, with the February 2028 maturity closing at 14.29% from 14.22%.
Eurobonds
The nation’s Eurobonds market opened the week on a bearish note today, with some sell offs seen across the curve. Average yields gained ca +8bps day-on-day with the January 2049 maturity closing at 8.67% from 8.59%.
Equities
The Nigerian equities market began the week on a negative note today, declining for a 6th consecutive trading day, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) shedding ca -1.26% day-on-day to close at 28,484.44pts, and market’s year-to-date returns at -9.36%. This was mainly due to losses in Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc (- 4.24%), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (-3.13%) and Zenith Bank Plc (-1.50%).
The NSE Banking, Oil & Gas, Consumer goods and Industrial indices all shed ca -280bps, -105bps, -42bps and -15bps respectively. UAC of Nigeria Plc led the volume chart with 41.29m units while Guaranty Trust Bank Plc led the value chart with ₦1.18bn worth of trades.
The Naira remained flat against the dollar in both the interbank and parallel markets today, at ₦306.95/$1 and ₦360/$1 respectively. It remained unchanged against the Euro and the Pound sterling at ₦402/€1 and ₦472/₤1 respectively, in the parallel market. The FMDQ Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) Fixing rate appreciated to ₦360.48/$1 from ₦360.55/$1.
Oil prices declined today reversing early gains, on increasing concerns of global growth as the Chinese government announced new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. Brent crude oil price was down ca -0.74% day-on-day at $70.10pb, while WTI was down ca -1.10% day-on-day at $60.98pb, as at report time. Spot gold gained ca +1.02% to close at $1,300.50 per ounce.
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| Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates | ||||
| 13-May-19 | 10-May-19 | Change in Rates | ||
| 87 Days | 10.97% | 11.29% | -0.32% | |
| 178 Days | 12.34% | 12.46% | 0.12% | |
| 339 Days. | 12.50% | 12.50% | -0.00% | |
| Source: FMDQ DQL for 13 May 2019 *T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates |
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| Benchmark FGN Bond Yields | ||||
| 13-May-19 | 10-May-19 | Change in Yield | ||
| 3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 | 14.40% | 14.44% | -0.04% | |
| 5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 | 14.07% | 14.07% | 0.00% | |
| 10 yrs: 13.98% 17 Mar 2028 | 14.29% | 14.22% | 0.07% | |
| 20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 . | 14.19% | 14.19% | 0.00% | |
| Source: FMDQ DQL for 13 May 2019 | ||||
| Benchmark FGN EuroBond Yields | ||||
| 13-May-19 | 10-May-19 | Change in Yield | ||
| 3 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 | 4.98% | 4.92% | 0.06% | |
| 5 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 | 5.72% | 5.65% | 0.07% | |
| 10 yrs: NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 | 7.02% | 6.93% | -0.09% | |
| 20 yrs: NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 | 8.07% | 7.98% | -0.09% | |
| 30 yrs: NGERIA 9.248 01/21/49 | 8.67% | 8.59% | -0.08% | |
| Source: FMDQ DQL for 13 May 2019 | ||||
| AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF) | |
| Net Yield (As at current date) | 13.26% per annum |
| Added Benefit | Personal accident insurance cover |
| AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a. | |||||
| Amount (NGN) | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 180 Days | 364 Days |
| 10,000,001 – 50,000,000 | 10.00 | 10.50 | 11.00 | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| 50,000,001 – 100,000,000 | 11.00 | 11.25 | 11.50 | 12.50 | 14.00 |
| 100,000,001 – 400,000,000 | 12.00 | 12.25 | 12.50 | 13.00 | 14.50 |
| Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a. | |||
| Maturity Dates | Tenor (Days) | Discount Rate | Effective Yield |
| 01-Aug-19 | 80 | 9.85% | 10.07% |
| 17-Oct-19 | 157 | 12.05% | 12.71% |
| 07-Nov-19 | 178 | 11.90% | 12.63% |
| 16-Jan-20 | 248 | 12.05% | 13.12% |
| Select Macro-economic Indices | |
| Inflation % (March 2019) | 11.25 (-1.66% ytd) |
| PMI (April 2019) | 57.70 |
| MPR (%) | 13.5 (-5%/+2% around mid-point) |
| CRR (%) | 22.5 |
| Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl | 70.10 (-0.74% d/d) |
| External Reserve (US$’billion) | 44.875 (+2.25% ytd) |
| GDP % (Q4 2018) | +2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y) |
| NSE All Share Index (ASI) | 28,484.44 (-1.26% d/d; -9.36% ytd) |
| Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) | 10.70 |
Financial Markets Update – 13 MAY 2019
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This document has been issued and approved by AIICO Capital and is based on information from various sources that we believe are reliable. However, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any opinion expressed herein. This document is for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any trading transaction.
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