Yields of U.S. Treasury declined to their lowest in almost 2years today, with the 2yr, 10yr, and 30yr treasuries dropping to ca +1.851%, +2.084% and +2.575%. This comes after data released by the U.S. Labour department showed the U.S. economy only added 75,000 Non-Farm jobs in May, significantly below market analysts expectation of 175,000 jobs, further increasing investors’ fears of a global economic slowdown in 2019 and raising risk-off sentiments on risk assets in Emerging Markets (EMs).
We expect investor’s appetite for safe haven assets to be sustained in the near term, with no immediate resolution in the on-going U.S./China trade tensions and expected negative on economic data in the world’s largest economies.
Banking system liquidity opened positive today at ca ₦584.25bn higher than ca ₦291.56bn recorded the previous day. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) did not conduct an Open Market Operation (OMO) auction today.
The treasury bills secondary market ended the week on a bearish note today, with sell offs seen at the short and long end of the curve. Average rates gained ca +14bps day-on-day, with the 19 September 2019 maturity closing at 12.63% from 12.50%.
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates traded higher day-on-day at 10.86% and 11.43% from 8.29% and 9.21%, despite improved interbank liquidity, as Banks made provisions for Retail FX Interventions. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
A bearish end to the week in the bonds secondary market today, with sell offs on select papers especially at the mid-to-long end of the curve. Average yields gained ca +15bps day-on-day, with February 2028 maturity closing at 14.60% from 14.50%.
The nation’s Eurobonds market ended the week on a bullish note today, as investors continue to show appetite for emerging market papers. Average yields shed ca -7bps day-on-day with the February 2038 maturity closing at 8.10% from 8.18%.
The Nigerian equities market closed for the week on a negative note today, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) shedding ca -0.31% day-on-day to close at 30,432.13pts, and market’s year-to-date returns at -3.21%. This was largely due to losses in MTN Nigeria Plc (-0.33%) and Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (-0.98%).
The NSE Banking, Consumer goods and Oil & Gas indices lost ca -32bps, -73bps and -137bps respectively, while the Industrial index marginally gained ca +2bps. United Bank for Africa Plc led the volume chart with 91.68m units while MTN Nigeria Plc led the value chart with ca ₦1.08bn worth of trades.
The Naira remained flat against the dollar in both the interbank and parallel markets at ₦306.90/$1 and ₦361/$1 respectively. It also remained stable against the Euro at ₦402/€1 and the Pound sterling at ₦465/₤1, in the parallel market. The FMDQ Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) Fixing rate appreciated day-on-day at ₦360.41/$1 from ₦360.44/$1.
Crude oil prices continued its recent upward trajectory climbing out of a 5-month low, as market reacts to reports that OPEC and its allies could extend their production cuts beyond June. Brent crude oil price gained ca +2.17% day-on-day at $63.01pb, while WTI gained ca +2.30% day-on-day at $53.80pb, as at report time. Spot gold gained ca +0.2979% at $1,347.00 per ounce.
|Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates|
|07-Jun-19||06-Jun-19||Change in Rates|
|90 Days .||12.17%||12.27%||-0.10%|
|Source: FMDQ DQL for 07 June 2019
*T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates
|Benchmark FGN Bond Yields|
|07-Jun-19||06-Jun-19||Change in Yield|
|3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021||14.64%||14.26%||0.38%|
|5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023||14.54%||14.33%||0.21%|
|10 yrs: 13.98% 17 Mar 2027||14.60%||14.50%||0.10%|
|20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 .||14.54%||14.54%||0.00%|
|Source: FMDQ DQL for 07 June 2019|
|Benchmark FGN EuroBond Yields|
|07-Jun-19||06-Jun-19||Change in Yield|
|3 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21||4.70%||4.77%||-0.07%|
|5 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23||5.51%||5.56%||-0.05%|
|10 yrs: NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27||7.19%||7.26%||-0.07%|
|20 yrs: NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38||8.10%||8.18%||-0.08%|
|30 yrs: NGERIA 9.248 01/21/49||8.64%||8.73%||-0.09%|
|Source: FMDQ DQL for 07 April 2019|
|AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)|
|Net Yield (As at current date)||13.14% per annum|
|Added Benefit||Personal accident insurance cover|
|AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.|
|Amount (NGN)||30 Days||60 Days||90 Days||180 Days||364 Days|
|10,000,001 – 50,000,000||10.00||10.50||11.00||12.00||13.00|
|50,000,001 – 100,000,000||11.00||11.25||11.50||12.50||14.00|
|100,000,001 – 400,000,000||12.00||12.25||12.50||13.00||14.50|
|Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.|
|Maturity Dates||Tenor (Days)||Discount Rate||Effective Yield|
|Select Macro-economic Indices|
|Inflation % (April 2019)||11.37 (+1.07% ytd)|
|PMI (May 2019)||57.80|
|MPR (%)||13.5 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)|
|Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl||63.01 (+2.17% d/d)|
|External Reserve (US$’billion)||45.139 (+1.84% ytd)|
|GDP % (Q4 2018)||+2.01% (Q4 2018: +2.38% y/y)|
|NSE All Share Index (ASI)||30.432.13 (-0.31% d/d; -3.21% ytd)|
|Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion)||13.40|