Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

All of us at AIICO Capital wish you all the Happiness in the New Year.

Global crude oil prices rallied further today, lifted by positive sentiments on U.S./China trade talks expected to hold this week and on expectation of a deeper crude oil output cut by Saudi Arabia to support crude oil prices, in line with the production-cut deal agreed to by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in November 2018. Brent crude oil price appreciated for a 7th consecutive trading day, rising to ca $57.45 per barrel vs $52.20 at the end of 2018, as Global equities markets also gained for a 2nd consecutive trading day

With expectation of continued positive sentiments this week as both U.S. and China hinted at their readiness to work out beneficial trade deals by the end of trade discussions concluding tomorrow, we expect Brent crude oil price and global equity market indices to appreciate further in the near term, with Brent crude oil price ranging ca $57 – $62 per barrel. However, we expect continued global financial markets volatility in 2019 will boost investors interest in safe-haven assets of developed economies.

 

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Liquidity in the banking system was expected to open on a positive note today. There was no Open Market Operations (OMO) auction conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.

Treasury Bills
A relatively active day in the treasury bills secondary market today, with continued sell-offs seen particularly at the short-end of the curve. Average rate gained ca +1bps day-on-day, with the 31 January 2019 maturity trading the most to close at 15.57% from 15.24%.

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates rose to 25.83% and 28.00% from 20.00% and 23.75% respectively. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:

– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 8.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
A relatively more active trading bond’s secondary market today, with activities seen on the mid-to-long dated maturities. Average yields remained stable day-on-day, with the March 2027 maturity trading the most to close at 15.55%.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market declined further today, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) lost ca -0.78% day-on-day to close at 30,400.28pts, with market’s year-to-date returns at -3.28%. This was mainly due to price depreciation in Nigeria Breweries Plc (-1.26%), Nestle Nigeria Plc (-1.69%) and Zenith Bank Plc (-1.84%).

The NSE Consumer Goods, Oil & Gas and Banking indices lost ca -226bps, -73bps, and -94bps respectively, while NSE Industrial index gained ca +5bps. Diamond Bank Plc led the volume chart with 77.68m units while Nestle Nigeria Plc led the value chart with ₦1.14bn worth of trades.

The Naira appreciated against the dollar at the interbank market window today, at ₦306.90/$1 from ₦306.95/$1. In the parallel market, it remained stable against the Dollar and Euro at ₦361/$1 and ₦410/€1 respectively, while depreciating against the Pound Sterling at ₦460/₤1 from ₦458/₤1. The Naira depreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window at ₦365.09/$1 from ₦364.75/$1.

Crude oil prices continued its sharp rise from last week, on rising expectation of a positive outcome of U.S./China trade talks to commence today, supported by reports of a reduction in crude oil output from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) led by Saudi Arabia. Brent crude oil price gained +0.68% at $57.45pb, while WTI crude appreciated by ca +1.33% at $48.60pb, as at report time. Spot gold gained ca +0.23% day-on-day at $1,288.70 per ounce.

 

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
DIAMONDBNK 1.98 0.18 +10.00%
WAPIC 0.44 0.04 +10.00%
AGLEVENT 0.29 0.02 +7.41%
AIICO 0.68 0.04 +6.25%
REGALINS 0.21 0.01 +5.00%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
NEM 2.34 -0.26 -10.00%
RESORTSAL 0.45 -0.05 -10.00%
MRS 23.15 -2.55 -9.92%
UACN 8.65 -0.95 -9.90%
FLOURMILL 19.70 -2.15 -9.84%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
07-Jan-19 04-Jan-19 Change in Rates
73 Days 13.77% 13.39% 0.38%
143 Days 13.22% 13.22% 0.00%
318 Days 14.80% 14.80% 0.00%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 07 January 2019
*T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
07-Jan-19 04-Jan-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 29-Jun 2019 14.15% 13.59% 0.56%
5 yrs: 15.54% 13-Feb 2020 15.15% 15.32% -0.17%
10 yrs: 16.29% 17 Mar 2027 15.55% 15.55% 0.00%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 15.20% 15.24% 0.04%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 07 January 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 13.13% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
24-Jan-19 17 14.80% 14.90%
14-Feb-19 38 14.20% 14.41%
21-Mar-19 73 12.90% 13.24%
07-Nov-19 304 14.35% 16.30%

 

Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (November 2018) 11.28 (-26.61% ytd)
PMI (December 2018) 61.10
MPR (%) 14 (-5/+2 around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 57.45 (+0.68% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 43.04 (-0.18% ytd)
GDP % (Q3 2018) +1.81% (Q2 2018: +1.50% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 30,400.28 (-0.78% d/d; -3.28% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 11.34