Nigeria’s economic growth rate for Q4 2018 rose above the +2% mark for the first time in 2018, recording a growth of +2.38% year-on-year vs +1.81% in Q3 2018 and +2.11% in Q4 2017, data released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics indicated today. This was on the back of a +2.70% growth in the Non-oil sector, while the Oil sector recorded further contraction for a 3rd consecutive quarter, at -1.61% on lower average crude oil production of 1.91 million barrels per day in Q4 vs 1.95 million barrels per day in Q3 2018.
With the global economy expected to grow at a slower pace vs 2018, on the back of continued slowdown in the Eurozone area, China and possible slowdown in the U.S. economy, we expect this to negatively impact on growth in sub-Sahara Africa and Nigeria in 2019. We also expect growth in the nation’s Oil sector to remain subdued in 2019 on implementation of the production-cut of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Q1 2019.
Liquidity in the banking system was to open on a negative today. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) conducted an Open Market Operation (OMO) auction to further tighten system liquidity, closing with a no sale made on all maturities auctioned.
A bearish trading relatively quiet trading day in the treasury bills secondary market today, with sell-offs seen particularly on short-dated maturities on tight banking system liquidity. The 28 February and 07 March 2019 maturities traded the most to close at 10.65% and 10.33% respectively, with average rate gaining ca +3ps day-on-day. Please find below a summary of the results of today’s Open Market Operations (OMO) auction:
|Amount Offered:||₦ 10.00billion||₦ 15.00 billion||₦ 40.00 billion|
|Subscription:||₦ 2.08billion||₦ 2.51 billion||₦ 16.60 billion|
|Range of bids:||11.9000% – 11.9000%||13.5000% – 15.0000%||15.0000% – 15.0000%|
|Stop Rates||No Sale||No Sale||No Sale|
There will be a Primary Auction of Treasury Bills tomorrow with ca ₦153.38 billion on offer at the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day maturities. Please find below our expectation of stop rates at the auction
|S/N||AUCTION DATE||TENOR||OFFER AMOUNT (NGN)||LAST STOP RATE||EXPECTED STOP RATE RANGE|
|1||13-Feb-19||91-Day||3,384,180,000.00||11.00%||10.85% – 11.05%|
|2||13-Feb-19||182-Day||10,000,000,000.00||13.50%||13.05% – 13.30%|
|3||13-Feb-19||364-Day||140,000,000,000.00||15.00%||14.75% – 15.00%|
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates dropped to 24.17% and 27.50% from 43.33% and 47.50%. Average fixed deposit rate amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 8.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
A quiet trading day in the bonds secondary market today, with most of market’s activities seen at the long-end of the curve. The March 2036 and April 2037 maturities traded the most to close at 14.68% and 14.53% with average yields gaining ca +1bps day-on-day.
The Nigerian equities market closed on a positive note today, appreciating for a 8th consecutive trading day, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) gained ca +2.14% day-on-day to close at 32,462.31pts, with market’s year-to-date returns at +3.28%. This was on the back of gains in highly capitalized as Dangote Cement Plc (+2.32), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (+0.26%), Nigerian Breweries Plc (+2.63%) and Zenith Bank Plc (+0.20%) and Nestle Nigeria Plc (+6.00%).
The NSE Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods, Banking, and Industrial indices all gained ca +412bps, +399bps, +129bps and +3bps respectively day-onday. Diamond Bank Plc led the volume chart with 125.82m while Guaranty Trust Bank Plc led the value chart with ₦2.226bn worth of trade.
The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the interbank market window today, at ₦306.75/$1 from ₦306.70/$1. In the parallel market, it also remained stable against the Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro at ₦361/$1, ₦473/₤1 and ₦411/€1 respectively. The Naira remained stable at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window at ₦361.38/$1.
Crude oil prices gained today, as the Organisation of Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its crude oil output for January by 792,000 barrels per day, reducing its total output to 30.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) vs 31.6 mbpd in December 2018. Brent crude oil price gained ca +1.64% at $62.52pb, while WTI crude rose ca +1.39% at $53.14pb, as at report time. Spot gold rose ca +0.10% day-on-day at $1,313.30 per ounce.
|AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)|
|Net Yield (As at current date)||13.22% per annum|
|Added Benefit||Personal accident insurance cover|
|AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.|
|Amount (NGN)||30 Days||60 Days||90 Days||180 Days||364 Days|
|10,000,001 – 50,000,000||10.00||10.50||11.00||12.00||13.00|
|50,000,001 – 100,000,000||11.00||11.25||11.50||12.50||14.00|
|100,000,001 – 400,000,000||12.00||12.25||12.50||13.00||14.50|
|Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.|
|Maturity Dates||Tenor (Days)||Discount Rate||Effective Yield|
|Select Macro-economic Indices|
|Inflation % (December 2018)||11.44 (-25.57% ytd)|
|PMI (January 2019)||58.50|
|MPR (%)||14 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)|
|Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl||62.52 (+1.64% d/d|
|External Reserve (US$’billion)||42.91 (-0.48% ytd)|
|GDP % (Q3 2018)||+2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y)|
|NSE All Share Index (ASI)||32,462.31 (+3.28% d/d; +2.14% ytd|
|Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion)||12.11|