Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

Continued uncertainty in the global financial markets today, with the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S & P 500, NASDAQ and Chinese SHANGHAI indices all lost ca -0.08%, -0.14%, -0.15% and -0.34% respectively, with the U.S. 10yr treasury yield dropping to ca +2.553%. This comes on the back of mix investors’ sentiments on economic growth in the world’s 2nd largest economy, after the release of customs data indicated ca 14.2% year-on-year rise in exports vs ca analyst expectation of 7.3%, while imports dropped ca 7.6% year-on-year vs analyst expectation of ca 1.3%, indication of subdued demand in the Chinese economy.

 

With expectation of continued subdued outlook to global economic growth in 2019, continued dovish monetary stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank and uncertainties of U.S./China trade negotiations, we expect continued volatility in global financial markets through 2019.

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Banking system liquidity opened negative today at ca -₦70bn from Friday’s positive opening of ca ₦187bn, on the back of funding for FX Intervention sales for Wholesale, SMEs & Invisibles. There was no Open Market Operation (OMO) auction by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.

Treasury Bills
The treasury bills secondary market kicked off the week on a bearish note due an interbank liquidity squeeze as Banks made provision for the weekly FX interventions by the CBN. Sell-offs was seen on short-to-mid dated maturities as average yields gained ca +4bps day-on-day with the 20 June19 maturity closing at 10.99% from 9.79%.

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates spiked day-on-day to 40% and 42.93% from 20.29% from 21.57%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
The bonds secondary market kicked off the week with demand in mid-to-long dated maturities today, while demand was weak at the short-end of the curve the long end witnessed some buying pressure. Average yields shed ca -7bps day-on-day with the March 2027 maturity closing at 14.35% from 14.69%.

Eurobonds

The nations Eurobonds market also saw some demand today, with buying interest across the curve. Average yields shed ca -9bps day-on-day as the January 2049 maturity closed at 8.30% from 8.40%.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market halted its 3-day rally from last week today, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) shedding ca -0.14% day-on-day to close at 29,518.85pts, and market’s year-to-date returns at -6.08%. This was majorly on the back of losses in Dangote Cement Plc (-1.59%) and Nestle Nigeria Plc (-0.26%).

The NSE Banking and Oil & Gas indices declined, shedding ca -11bps and -13bps respectively while the Industrial and Consumer Goods indices gained +56bps and +133bps respectively. Sovereign Insurance Plc led the volume chart with ca 45.72m units while Guaranty Trust Bank Plc led the value chart at ca ₦503m.

The Naira marginally appreciated against the dollar in the interbank at ₦306.95 but remained flat in the parallel markets at ₦360/$1. It was also stable against the Pound sterling and the Euro at ₦475/₤1 and ₦404/€1 respectively in the parallel market. In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window, the Naira depreciated marginally against the Dollar to close at ₦360.34/$1 from ₦360.22/$1.

Oil prices fell today as investors weighed mixed signals on global supply and signs that Russia may opt out of coordinated production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Brent crude oil price shed ca -0.64% day-on-day at $71.09pb, while WTI lost ca -1.14% day-on-day at $63.16pb, as at report time. Spot gold lost ca -0.25% to close at $1,292.00 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
INITSPLC 0.80 0.07 +9.59%
DANGFLOUR 9.20 0.80 +9.52%
FIRSTALUM 0.35 0.03 +9.37%
CADBURY 11.00 0.90 +8.91%
CHIPLC 0.26 0.02 +8.33%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
ABCTRANS 0.36 -0.04 -10.00%
AGLEVENT 0.28 -0.03 -9.68%
NIGERINS 0.20 -0.02 -9.09%
ROYALEX 0.23 -0.02 -8.00%
UBA 6.20 -0.30 -4.62%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
15-Apr-19 12-Apr-19 Change in Rates
66Days                                      . 10.99% 9.79% 1.20%
157Days- 13.00% 13.00% 0.00%
353Days. 12.87% 12.87% 0.00%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 15 April 2019
*T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
15-Apr-19 12-Apr-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 14.82% 14.90% -0.08%
5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 14.45% 14.73% -0.28%
10 yrs: 16.29% 17 Mar 2027 14.35% 14.69% -0.34%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037  . 14.43% 14.45% -0.02%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 15 April 2019
Benchmark FGN EuroBond Yields
15-Apr-19 12-Apr-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 4.89% 4.96% -0.07%
5 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 5.52% 5.59% -0.07%
10 yrs: NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 6.72% 6.80% -0.08%
20 yrs: NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 7.78% 7.87% -0.09%
30 yrs: NGERIA 9.248 01/21/49 8.30% 8.40% -0.10%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 15 April 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 13.50% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
01-Aug-19 113 10.70% 11.07%
17-Oct-19 190 12.50% 13.37%
07-Nov-19 211 12.60% 13.59%
16-Jan-20 281 12.40% 13.71%

 

Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (February 2019) 11.31 (-1.14% ytd)
PMI (March 2019) 57.40
MPR (%) 13.5 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 71.09 (-0.64% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 44.721 (+2.30% ytd)
GDP % (Q4 2018) +2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 29,518.85 (-0.14% d/d; -6.08% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 11.08

Financial Markets Update – 15 April 2019

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