Financial Markets Today

Global financial markets opened the first trading day of the week on a bullish note, with the Chinese SHANGHAI index gaining ca +5.60% day-on-day, its biggest 1-day gain since July 2015 on increased investors’ optimism of U.S./China trade negotiations. This comes after the U.S. President – Donald Trump, indicated plans to extend the earlier 01 March deadline for a deal to be reached as well as further indication for continued negotiations between the world’s 2 largest economies. The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S & P 500, NASDAQ, German DAX and London FTSE gained ca +0.76%, +0.49%, +0.62%, +0.42% and +0.07% respectively, with the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index gained ca +1.22% day-on-day.

We expect investors’ optimism and sentiments of U.S./China trade tensions to pull investors’ interest in global risk assets into positive territory vs Q4 2018. However, we expect the trade boost from this will not sufficiently pull global growth higher than previously forecasted at 4.5% by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Banking system liquidity was expected to open negative today. There was no Open Market Operation (OMO) auction conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.

Treasury Bills
Another active trading day in the treasury bills secondary market today, with demand seen particularly at the short-end of the curve, on the absence of Open Market Operation (OMO) auction. Average rates dropped ca 17bps day-on-day, with the 16 May maturity trading the most to close at 10.36% from 11.64%.

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates dropped day-on-day to 17.64% and 18.79% from 18.83% and 20.25%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
The bonds secondary market today saw continued buying interest today, particularly on the February 2028 maturity. Average yield dropped ca -3bps day-on-day, with the February 2028 maturity trading the most to close at 14.57% from 14.70%.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market gained today, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) appreciating ca +0.57% day-on-day to close at 32,700.12pts, with market’s year-to-date returns at +4.04%. This was largely due to price gains in Dangote Cement Plc (+0.05%), Nigerian Breweries Plc (+4.00%) and Zenith Bank Plc (+0.97%).

The NSE Consumer Goods, Industrial, Oil & Gas and Banking indices gained ca +126bps, +2bps, +5bps and +85bps respectively. Nigerian Breweries Plc led both the volume and value charts with 42.71m units traded at ₦3.55bn.

The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the interbank market window today, at ₦306.85/$1 from ₦306.80/$1. In the parallel market, it remained stable against the Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro at ₦360/$1, ₦470/₤1 and ₦408/€1 day-on-day, respectively. The Naira depreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window at ₦361.58/$1 from ₦361.44/$1.

Crude oil prices declined sharply today, after the U.S. President – Donald Trump twitted his support for a price drop in global crude oil prices. Brent crude oil price lost ca -3.31% at $64.90pb, while WTI crude lost ca -3.37% at $55.33pb, as at report time. Spot gold rose ca -0.12% day-on-day at $1,330.20 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol)	Closing Price	Gain(N)	% Change
DANGFLOUR	11.05	1.00	+9.95%
ABCTRANS	0.57	0.05	+9.62%
NIGERINS	0.24	0.02	+9.09%
ROYALEX	0.36	0.03	+9.09%
SOVRENINS	0.25	0.02	+8.70%

Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol)	Closing Price	Gain(N)	% Change
UNIONDAC	0.29	-0.02	-6.45%
TOTAL	190.00	-5.00	-2.56%
CUTIX	1.87	-0.03	-1.58%
FLOURMILL	20.00	-0.20	-0.99%
ACCESS	6.35	-0.05	-0.78%

Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
	25-Feb-19	22-Feb-19	Change in Rates
73Days	10.91%	11.70%	-0.79%
157Days	12.93%	12.93%	0.00%
304Days	14.68%	14.68%	0.00%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 25 February 2019 *T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates

Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
	25-Feb-19	22-Jan-19	Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 29-Jun 2019	12.41%	12.77%	-0.36%
5 yrs: 15.54% 13-Feb 2020	16.45%	16.46%	-0.01%
10 yrs: 16.29% 17 Mar 2027	14.45%	14.73%	-0.28%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037	14.42%	14.48%	-0.06%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 25 February 2019

AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date)	13.28% per annum
Added Benefit	Personal accident insurance cover

AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN)	30 Days	60 Days	90 Days	180 Days	364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000	10.00	10.50	11.00	12.00	13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000	11.00	11.25	11.50	12.50	14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000	12.00	12.25	12.50	13.00	14.50

Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates	Tenor (Days)	Discount Rate	Effective Yield
21-Mar-19	24	7.70%	7.74%
09-May-19	73	11.30%	11.56%
01-Aug-19	157	11.95%	12.60%
07-Nov-19	255	14.20%	15.76%

Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (January 2019)	11.37 (-0.61% ytd)
PMI (January 2019)	58.50
MPR (%)	14 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%)	22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl	64.90 (-3.31% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion)	42.53 (-1.36% ytd)
GDP % (Q4 2018)	+2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI)	32,700.12(+0.57% d/d; +4.04% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion)	12.19