Financial Markets Today
Yields on Nigeria’s Eurobonds rose today, with the 30yr January 2049 maturity seeing its highest day-on-day rise in 2019 and average yield gaining ca +13bps day-on-day, with similar impact on other Emerging Market (EMs) Dollar denominated debt assets. This comes on the back of increased Foreign Investors’ fears of a possible contagion impact after Turkey’s currency – Lira depreciated to its lowest since October against the U.S. Dollar today by ca 2% day-on-day, after Turkey’s Central Bank decided against raising its benchmark interest rates as previously planned, and with expectation of further pressure on the Lira on mounting trade tensions with the U.S. and an unexpected drop in its FX reserves.
With continued expectation of slower global economic growth and gradually increasing expectation of a possible repeat of Emerging Market (EMs) currency crisis and contagion of 2018, we expect the negative pessimism towards EMs risk assets to continue in the near term. However, we expect some support from rising commodity prices for commodity dependent EMs, particularly with Brent crude oil price expected to range ca $70 – $80 per barrel in H1 2019.
MONEY MARKETS
CAPITAL MARKETS
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
COMMODITIES
Banking system liquidity opened positive today at ca ₦237bn from ca ₦194bn yesterday. The was no Open Market Operation (OMO) auction by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.
Treasury Bills
The treasury bills secondary market continued bullish today, as demand persisted on mid-to-long dated maturities, due to a lack of OMO auction by the CBN. Average yields shed ca -9bps day-on-day with the 23 January 2020 maturity closing at 12.61% from 12.83%.
Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates traded lower day-on-day at 6.14% and 7.29% from 11.86% and 12.86%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
Bonds
The bonds secondary market traded on a bearish note today, in reaction to yesterday’s primary auction where yields closed above market levels. Average yields gained ca +6bps day-on-day with the April 2037 maturity closing at 14.38% from 14.54%.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market traded bearish today with average yields gaining ca +13bps day-on-day. The February 2038 and January 2049 maturities both closed at 7.93% and 8.52% from 7.79% and 8.36% respectively.
Equities
The Nigerian equities market closed positive today, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) appreciating by ca +0.07% day-on-day to close at 29,919.44pts, and market’s year-to-date returns at -4.81%. This was mainly due to gains in Seplat Petroleum Development Company (+4.22%) and Nigeria Brewery Plc (+1.56%).
The NSE Banking, Consumer Goods and Oil & Gas indices gained ca +12bps, +4bps and +285bps respectively, while the NSE Industrial index lost ca -19bps. Julius Berger Plc led both the volume and value charts with ca 218.04m units valued at ₦4.32bn.
The Naira traded flat against the dollar in both the interbank and parallel markets today at ₦306.90/$1 and ₦360/$1 respectively. It remained stable against the Pound sterling at ₦474/₤1 and marginally appreciated against the Euro at ₦403/€1 from ₦404/€1 in the parallel market. In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window, the Naira marginally appreciated against the Dollar to close at ₦360.33/$1 from ₦360.34/$1.
Oil prices declined today, on investors’ continued reaction to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released yesterday, indicating a week-on-week rise in U.S. Shale crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude oil price shed ca -0.35% day-on-day at $74.31pb, while WTI shed ca -1.18% day-on-day at $65.11pb, as at report time. Spot gold gained ca +0.03% to close at $1,279.00 per ounce.
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| Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates | ||||
| 25-Apr-19 | 24-Apr-19 | Change in Rates | ||
| 56Days . | 10.97% | 11.11% | -0.14% | |
| 147Days- | 12.84% | 12.74% | 0.10% | |
| 343Days. | 12.61% | 12.72% | -0.11% | |
| Source: FMDQ DQL for 25 April 2019 *T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates |
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| Benchmark FGN Bond Yields | ||||
| 25-Apr-19 | 24-Apr-19 | Change in Yield | ||
| 3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 | 14.81% | 14.80% | 0.01% | |
| 5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 | 14.37% | 14.40% | -0.03% | |
| 10 yrs: 13.98% 17 Mar 2027 | 14.46% | 14.39% | 0.07% | |
| 20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 . | 14.54% | 14.38% | 0.16% | |
| Source: FMDQ DQL for 25 April 2019 | ||||
| Benchmark FGN EuroBond Yields | ||||
| 25-Apr-19 | 24-Apr-19 | Change in Yield | ||
| 3 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 | 5.01% | 4.89% | 0.12% | |
| 5 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 | 5.64% | 5.54% | 0.10% | |
| 10 yrs: NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 | 6.87% | 6.72% | 0.15% | |
| 20 yrs: NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 | 7.93% | 7.79% | 0.14% | |
| 30 yrs: NGERIA 9.248 01/21/49 | 8.52% | 8.36% | 0.16% | |
| Source: FMDQ DQL for 25 April 2019 | ||||
| AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF) | |
| Net Yield (As at current date) | 13.09% per annum |
| Added Benefit | Personal accident insurance cover |
| AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a. | |||||
| Amount (NGN) | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 180 Days | 364 Days |
| 10,000,001 – 50,000,000 | 10.00 | 10.50 | 11.00 | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| 50,000,001 – 100,000,000 | 11.00 | 11.25 | 11.50 | 12.50 | 14.00 |
| 100,000,001 – 400,000,000 | 12.00 | 12.25 | 12.50 | 13.00 | 14.50 |
| Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a. | |||
| Maturity Dates | Tenor (Days) | Discount Rate | Effective Yield |
| 01-Aug-19 | 98 | 9.90% | 10.17% |
| 17-Oct-19 | 175 | 11.85% | 12.56% |
| 07-Nov-19 | 196 | 12.10% | 12.94% |
| 16-Jan-20 | 266 | 12.20% | 13.39% |
| Select Macro-economic Indices | |
| Inflation % (March 2019) | 11.25 (-1.66% ytd) |
| PMI (March 2019) | 57.40 |
| MPR (%) | 13.5 (-5%/+2% around mid-point) |
| CRR (%) | 22.5 |
| Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl | 74.31(+0.35% d/d) |
| External Reserve (US$’billion) | 44.736 (+2.27% ytd) |
| GDP % (Q4 2018) | +2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y) |
| NSE All Share Index (ASI) | 29,919.44 (+0.07% d/d; -4.81% ytd) |
| Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) | 11.24 |
Financial Markets Update – 25 April 2019
Important Disclaimers
This document has been issued and approved by AIICO Capital and is based on information from various sources that we believe are reliable. However, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any opinion expressed herein. This document is for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any trading transaction.
Investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report is provided solely for the information of AIICO Capital clients who are then expected to make their own investment decisions. AIICO Capital conducts designated investment business with market counter parties and customers and this document is directed only to such persons. AIICO Capital accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is for private circulation only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without prior express consent of AIICO Capital. Users of this report should bear in mind that investments can fluctuate in price and value. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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