Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

Yields on Nigeria’s Eurobonds rose today, with the 30yr January 2049 maturity seeing its highest day-on-day rise in 2019 and average yield gaining ca +13bps day-on-day, with similar impact on other Emerging Market (EMs) Dollar denominated debt assets. This comes on the back of increased Foreign Investors’ fears of a possible contagion impact after Turkey’s currency – Lira depreciated to its lowest since October against the U.S. Dollar today by ca 2% day-on-day, after Turkey’s Central Bank decided against raising its benchmark interest rates as previously planned, and with expectation of further pressure on the Lira on mounting trade tensions with the U.S. and an unexpected drop in its FX reserves.

 

With continued expectation of slower global economic growth and gradually increasing expectation of a possible repeat of Emerging Market (EMs) currency crisis and contagion of 2018, we expect the negative pessimism towards EMs risk assets to continue in the near term. However, we expect some support from rising commodity prices for commodity dependent EMs, particularly with Brent crude oil price expected to range ca $70 – $80 per barrel in H1 2019.

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Banking system liquidity opened positive today at ca ₦237bn from ca ₦194bn yesterday. The was no Open Market Operation (OMO) auction by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.

Treasury Bills
The treasury bills secondary market continued bullish today, as demand persisted on mid-to-long dated maturities, due to a lack of OMO auction by the CBN. Average yields shed ca -9bps day-on-day with the 23 January 2020 maturity closing at 12.61% from 12.83%.

 

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates traded lower day-on-day at 6.14% and 7.29% from 11.86% and 12.86%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
The bonds secondary market traded on a bearish note today, in reaction to yesterday’s primary auction where yields closed above market levels. Average yields gained ca +6bps day-on-day with the April 2037 maturity closing at 14.38% from 14.54%.

Eurobonds

The Eurobonds market traded bearish today with average yields gaining ca +13bps day-on-day. The February 2038 and January 2049 maturities both closed at 7.93% and 8.52% from 7.79% and 8.36% respectively.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market closed positive today, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) appreciating by ca +0.07% day-on-day to close at 29,919.44pts, and market’s year-to-date returns at -4.81%. This was mainly due to gains in Seplat Petroleum Development Company (+4.22%) and Nigeria Brewery Plc (+1.56%).

The NSE Banking, Consumer Goods and Oil & Gas indices gained ca +12bps, +4bps and +285bps respectively, while the NSE Industrial index lost ca -19bps. Julius Berger Plc led both the volume and value charts with ca 218.04m units valued at ₦4.32bn.

The Naira traded flat against the dollar in both the interbank and parallel markets today at ₦306.90/$1 and ₦360/$1 respectively. It remained stable against the Pound sterling at ₦474/₤1 and marginally appreciated against the Euro at ₦403/€1 from ₦404/€1 in the parallel market. In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window, the Naira marginally appreciated against the Dollar to close at ₦360.33/$1 from ₦360.34/$1.

Oil prices declined today, on investors’ continued reaction to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released yesterday, indicating a week-on-week rise in U.S. Shale crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude oil price shed ca -0.35% day-on-day at $74.31pb, while WTI shed ca -1.18% day-on-day at $65.11pb, as at report time. Spot gold gained ca +0.03% to close at $1,279.00 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
CUTIX 1.87 0.17 +10.00%
FO 26.70 2.40 +9.88%
DANGFLOUR 14.15 1.25 +9.69%
NPFMCRFBK 1.52 0.13 +9.35%
JAPAULOIL 0.26 0.02 +8.33%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
JBERGER 22.50 -2.50 -10.00%
GUINNESS 48.60 -5.40 -10.00%
UACN 6.30 -0.65 -9.35%
JAIZBANK 0.44 -0.04 -8.33%
SOVRENINS 0.23 -0.02 -8.00%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
25-Apr-19 24-Apr-19 Change in Rates
56Days                                      . 10.97% 11.11% -0.14%
147Days- 12.84% 12.74% 0.10%
343Days. 12.61% 12.72% -0.11%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 25 April 2019
*T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
25-Apr-19 24-Apr-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 14.81% 14.80% 0.01%
5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 14.37% 14.40% -0.03%
10 yrs: 13.98% 17 Mar 2027 14.46% 14.39% 0.07%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037  . 14.54% 14.38% 0.16%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 25 April 2019
Benchmark FGN EuroBond Yields
25-Apr-19 24-Apr-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 5.01% 4.89% 0.12%
5 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 5.64% 5.54% 0.10%
10 yrs: NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 6.87% 6.72% 0.15%
20 yrs: NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 7.93% 7.79% 0.14%
30 yrs: NGERIA 9.248 01/21/49 8.52% 8.36% 0.16%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 25 April 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 13.09% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
01-Aug-19 98 9.90% 10.17%
17-Oct-19 175 11.85% 12.56%
07-Nov-19 196 12.10% 12.94%
16-Jan-20 266 12.20% 13.39%

 

Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (March 2019) 11.25 (-1.66% ytd)
PMI (March 2019) 57.40
MPR (%) 13.5 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 74.31(+0.35% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 44.736 (+2.27% ytd)
GDP % (Q4 2018) +2.38% (Q3 2018: +1.81% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 29,919.44 (+0.07% d/d; -4.81% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 11.24

Financial Markets Update – 25 April 2019

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