Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

The largest economy in the world – U.S. today, reported a slowdown in its economic growth rate for Q2 2019 and its weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 2017, with GDP growth of 2.1% vs market analysts’ expectation of 2%. This comes lower than the 3.1% growth achieved in Q1 2019, of the back of poor readings for gross private domestic investment which declined by 5.5%, the worst drop since Q4 in 2015. However, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose by 4.5%, its best
performance in almost 5years, which aided the positive growth of the economy in Q1. Yields of U.S. Treasuries rose marginally day-on-day, with the U.S. 10yr treasury
yield rising to ca +2.07%.

We expect investors to remain cautious on interpretation of the released data, with mixed expectation for outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled to hold between Tuesday – Wednesday next week.

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

The amount of money in the Nigerian banking system opened on a positive note today, at ca ₦4.13bn from the negative position it opened with yesterday at ca – ₦51.44bn. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) did not conduct an Open Market Operation (OMO) auction today.

Treasury Bills
Activities in the treasury bills secondary market closed the last trading day of the week with more sell-off seen, particularly on the 41days to 174days maturities, due to tightened interbank liquidity. Average rates gained ca +9bps day-on-day as the 01 August 2019 maturity traded the most to close at 9.80%. We expect liquidity in the banking system to improve early next week on inflow from revenue distribution by the 3-tiers of government – Statutory Revenue Allocation (SRA) for the month of June, with ca ₦762.6 billion shared and ca ₦360 billion expected to be credited.

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates traded higher day-on-day at 21.86% and 23.21% from 14.29% and 15.00%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
Demand for Federal Government (FGN) bonds in the domestic secondary market was seen on some maturities. However, some profit taken was also seen, particularly at the long-end of the curve, with average yields marginally shedding -1bps day-on-day. The April 2049 maturity trading the most to close at 14.12% from 13.97%.

Eurobond

Sales of Eurobond assets by investors continued in the Nigeria Eurobond market today, particularly on the November 2047 and January 2049 maturities. Average yields gained ca +13bps day-on-day with the November 2047 paper closing at 7.42% from 7.30%.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market closed the last trading day of the week on a negative note today, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) losing ca -0.26% day-on-day to close at 27,918.59pts, and market’s year-to-date returns further dropping to -11.17%. This was mainly due to losses in Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (-1.04%) and Dangote Cement Plc (-0.58%).

The NSE Oil & Gas, Banking, Consumer and Industrial indices all lost ca -292bps, -67bps, -50bps and -135bps respectively. Consolidated Hallmark Insurance Plc led the volume chart with ca 14.16m units and while Dangote Cement Plc led the value chart with ca ₦859.72mn worth of trade.

The Naira remained stable against the dollar day-on-day, for the fourth time this week in both the interbank and parallel markets to close at ₦306.90/$1 and ₦360/$1 respectively. In the parallel market, it traded flat against the Pound Sterling and the Euro day-on-day closing at ₦455/₤1 and ₦403/€1 respectively. The FMDQ Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) Fixing rate marginally depreciated day-on-day at ₦361.97/$1 from ₦361.60/$1.

Crude oil price gained today, as Brent crude oil price shed ca -0.03% day-on-day at $63.37pb, while WTI gained ca +0.04% day-on-day at $56.04pb, as at report time. This comes of the back of reported slowdown in growth rate of the U.S. economy in Q2 2019 with GDP at 2.1% vs 3.1% in Q1 2019, and fears of further escalation of tensions in the middle east. Spot gold shed ca -0.2615% at $1,418.40 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
CHIPLC 0.33 0.03 +10.00%
NPFMCRFBK 1.29 0.11 +9.32%
WAPIC 0.38 0.02 +5.56%
OANDO 3.95 0.15 +3.95%
CHAMS 0.28 0.01 +3.70%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
INTBREW 12.50 -1.30 -9.42%
CCNN 11.60 -0.85 -6.83%
OKOMUOIL 52.00 -3.80 -6.81%
SEPLAT 490.00 -35.00 -6.67%
ETI 8.45 -0.55 -6.11%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
26-Jul-19 25-Jul-19 Change in Rates
90 Days 10.40% 10.42% -0.02%
174 Days- 11.00% 10.85% 0.15%
321 Days. 11.10% 11.10% 0.00%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 26 July 2019
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
26-Jul-19 25-Jul-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 15-Jul-2021 13.00% 13.00% 0.00%
5 yrs: 15.54% 27-Apr 2023 13.01% 13.20% -0.19%
10 yrs: 13.98% 23-Feb 2028 13.59% 13.85% -0.26%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 14.08% 13.99% 0.09%
30 yrs: 14.80% 26-Apr 2049 14.12% 13.97% 0.15%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 26 July 2019
Benchmark FGN EuroBond Yields
26-Jul-19 25-Jul-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 3.96% 3.85% 0.11%
5 yrs: NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 4.52% 4.42% 0.10%
10 yrs: NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 6.05% 5.87% 0.18%
20 yrs: NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 7.31% 7.16% 0.15%
30 yrs: NGERIA 9.248 01/21/49 7.87% 7.72% 0.15%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 26 July 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 12.87% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
26-Sep-19 61 9.90% 10.07%
31-Oct-19 96 9.80% 10.06%
16-Jan-20 173 10.60% 11.16%
28-May-20 306 10.50% 11.51%
Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (June2019) 11.22 (-0.18% ytd)
PMI (June 2019) 57.40
MPR (%) 13.5 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 63.37 (-0.03% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 45.043 (+1.36% ytd)
GDP % (Q1 2019) +2.01% (Q4 2018: +2.38% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 27,918.59 (-0.26% d/d; -11.17 ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 13.61

Financial Markets Update – 26 JULY 2019

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