Financial Markets Today

Financial Markets Today

All of us at AIICO Capital wish you all the Happiness in the New Year.

The Nigerian equities market declined for a 7th consecutive trading day in 2019, dropping below the 30,000pts for the first time since May 2017, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) losing ca -2.33% day-on-day at 29,336.80pts. This can be attributed to continued sell-offs by both Foreign Portfolio (FPIs) and domestic Investors on growing interest in equities of developed economies with the resurgence of global equity indices since the start of this week and uncertainties of next months’ general election.
With rising positive investors sentiments on the back of U.S./China trade talks, after the conclusion of today’s meeting and rising crude oil prices with Brent crude oil price back above $60 per barrel, we expect further rise in FPI flows into risk assets of developed markets and China vs Emerging (EMs) and Frontier (FMs) markets in Q1 2019. This is expected to further negatively impact the NSE ASI in Q1 2019.

 

MONEY MARKETS

CAPITAL MARKETS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

COMMODITIES

Banking system liquidity opened on a negative note today, at ca -₦112 billion. There was no Open Market Operations (OMO) auction conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today

Treasury Bills
A very bullish trading day in the treasury bills secondary market today despite the negative banking system liquidity. Demand was seen particularly at the short-end of the curve, with average rate losing ca -3bps day-on-day. The 24 January 2019 maturity traded the most to close at 14.60% from 15.85%.

Tenor 107-Days 170-Days 317-Days
Maturity Date: 25-Apr-19 27-Jun-19 21-Nov-19
Amount Offered: ₦ 10.00 billion  20.00 billion 30.00 billion
Subscription: ₦ 0.0157 billion  0.7615 billion  9.95 billion
Amount Allotted: ₦ 0.0157 billion  0.7615 billion  9.95 billion
Range of bids: 11.9000% – 11.9000% 13.5000% – 15.0000% 15.0000% – 15.0000%
Stop Rates 11.9000% 13.5000% 15.0000%

Bank Placements
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates rose to 26.67% and 27.67% from 25.00% and 27.25% respectively. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:

– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.50% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.

Bonds
A relatively quiet trading day in the bonds secondary market today. Average yields dropped ca -7bps day-on-day, with the February 2028 maturity trading the most to close at 15.49%.

Equities
The Nigerian equities market declined sharply further today, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) lost ca -2.33% day-onday to close at 29,336.80pts, with market’s year-to-date returns at -6.66%. This was mainly due to price depreciation in Dangote Cement Plc (-
8.60%) and Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (-2.19%).

The NSE Banking and Industrial indices both lost ca -28bps and -4.35bps respectively, while NSE Consumer Goods and Oil & Gas indices gained ca +74bps and +15bps. Diamond Bank Plc led the volume chart with 54.67m units while Guaranty Trust Bank Plc led the value chart with ₦865.70mn worth of trades.

The Naira remained stable against the dollar at the interbank market window today, at ₦306.90/$1. In the parallel market, it remained stable against the Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro at ₦361/$1, ₦460/₤1 and ₦410/€1 respectively. The Naira depreciated further at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window at ₦365.20/$1 from ₦365.17/$1.

Crude oil prices rose sharply today, on continued positive sentiments on the expected outcome of on-going U.S./China trade talks. This was supported by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which showed a lower drop of 1.7 million barrels last week vs analyst expectation of 2.8 million barrels. Brent crude oil price rose by ca +4.14% at $61.15pb, while WTI crude appreciated by ca +4.82% at $52.18pb, as at report time. Spot gold gained ca +0.51% day-on-day at $1,292.40 per ounce.

Top 5 Equitiy Advancers
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
JBERGER 25.85 2.35 +10.00%
UNILEVER 37.00 3.25 +9.63%
UCAP 2.80 0.18 +6.87%
FCMB 1.70 0.10 +6.25%
FIDELITYBK 1.90 0.10 +5.56%
Top 5 Equity Decliners
Name (Symbol) Closing Price Gain(N) % Change
UPL 1.89 -0.21 -10.00%
NEM 1.91 -0.21 -9.91%
CHAMPION 1.55 -0.17 -9.88%
ETERNA 3.95 -0.40 -9.20%
NEIMETH 0.70 -0.07 -9.09%
Benchmark T-Bills Discount Rates
09-Jan-19 08-Jan-19 Change in Rates
71 Days 14.18% 14.13% 0.05%
141 Days 13.29% 13.22% 0.07%
316 Days 14.94% 14.79% 0.15%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 09 January 2019
*T-Bills Discount Rates are slightly different from current market rates
Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
09-Jan-19 08-Jan-19 Change in Yield
3 yrs: 16.00% 29-Jun 2019 14.21% 14.18% 0.03%
5 yrs: 15.54% 13-Feb 2020 14.88% 15.15% -0.27%
10 yrs: 16.29% 17 Mar 2027 15.39% 15.43% -0.04%
20 yrs: 16.25% 18-Apr 2037 15.36% 15.20% 0.16%
Source: FMDQ DQL for 09 January 2019
AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)
Net Yield (As at current date) 13.11% per annum
Added Benefit Personal accident insurance cover
AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.
Amount (NGN) 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 364 Days
10,000,001 – 50,000,000 10.00 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00
50,000,001 – 100,000,000 11.00 11.25 11.50 12.50 14.00
100,000,001 – 400,000,000 12.00 12.25 12.50 13.00 14.50
Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.
Maturity Dates Tenor (Days) Discount Rate Effective Yield
24-Jan-19 15 15.20% 15.30%
14-Feb-19 36 14.00% 14.20%
21-Mar-19 71 13.75% 14.13%
07-Nov-19 302 14.35% 16.28%
Select Macro-economic Indices
Inflation % (November 2018) 11.28 (-26.61% ytd)
PMI (December 2018) 61.10
MPR (%) 14 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)
CRR (%) 22.5
Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl 61.15 (+4.14% d/d)
External Reserve (US$’billion) 43.05 (-0.16% ytd)
GDP % (Q3 2018) +1.81% (Q2 2018: +1.50% y/y)
NSE All Share Index (ASI) 29,336.80 (-2.33% d/d; -6.66% ytd)
Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion) 10.94
Important Disclaimers
This document has been issued and approved by AIICO Capital and is based on information from various sources that we believe are reliable. However, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any opinion expressed herein. This document is for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any trading transaction.
Investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report is provided solely for the information of AIICO Capital clients who are then expected to make their own investment decisions. AIICO Capital conducts designated investment business with market counter parties and customers and this document is directed only to such persons. AIICO Capital accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is for private circulation only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without prior express consent of AIICO Capital. Users of this report should bear in mind that investments can fluctuate in price and value. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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