All of us at AIICO Capital wish you all the Happiness in the New Year.
Crude oil prices rose sharply today, with Bent crude oil price rising ca 2% day-on-day at ca $62.06 per barrel as U.S. jobs report for January 2019 released today, indicated an impressive rise of 304,000 month-on-month vs market analyst expectation of 165,000. This comes as a Reuters report indicated a drop of ca 890,000 barrels in crude oil output from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in January 2019 at ca 30.98 million barrels per day (mbpd) vs 31.87 mbpd in December 2018, on implementation of the an OPEC led production-cut agreement.
We expect this to have positive impact on investors optimism of risk assets, particularly in developed economies, with the 10yr U.S. treasury yield rising to +2.686%. However, we expect a rise in volatility in global financial markets on expectation of sub-par Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 economic growth in the world’s largest economies and continued uncertainties of current U.S./China trade negotiations.
Banking system liquidity opened positive today, at ca ₦662.17bn. There was no Open Market Operation (OMO) auction conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today.
A relatively more active trading day in the treasury bills secondary market, with continued demand seen at the short-end of the curve. Average rate lost ca -27ps day-on-day, with the 07 March 2019 maturity trading the most to close at 11.00% from 11.71%.
|Amount Offered:||₦ 50.00billion||₦ 150.00billion||₦ 350.00 billion|
|Subscription:||₦ 82.96billion||₦ 46.62billion||₦270.97 billion|
|Amount Allotted:||₦ 82.96billion||₦ 46.62billion||₦ 270.97 billion|
|Range of bids:||11.7500% – 11.9000%||13.5000% – 15.0000%||15.0000% – 15.0000%|
Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates rose to 11.07 % and 11.86% from 10.29% and 11.36%. Average fixed deposit rates amongst banks monitored showed:
– tier-1 rated banks at 3.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
– tier-2 rated banks at 7.00% for 30 – 60 days tenor on ₦10mln – ₦100mln.
A very active and bullish trading day in the bonds secondary market today, with demand seen across the curve, particularly on mid-dated maturities. Activities remained focused on the February 2028 maturity which dropped to 15.04% and 15.20%. Average yields declined ca -9bps day-on-day.
The Nigerian equities market appreciated today, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) gaining ca +0.26% day-on-day to close at 30,pts, with market’s year-to-date returns at -2.78%. This was majorly due to gains in Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (+0.75%), Zenith Ban Plc (+2.00%) and Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc (+0.22%).
The NSE Banking index gained ca +195bps day-on-day, while the NSE Consumer Goods, Oil & Gas and Industrial indices declined ca -20bps, -42bps and -297bps respectively. Guaranty Trust Bank Plc led both the volume and value charts with 65.22m units traded at ₦2.20bn.
The Naira remained stable against the dollar at the interbank market window today, at ₦306.75/$1. In the parallel market, it remained stable against the Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro at ₦361/$1, ₦472/₤1 and ₦411/€1. The Naira appreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) window at ₦362.68/$1 from ₦362.71/$1.
Crude oil prices rose for a 4th consecutive day today, as U.S. jobs data released today indicated a steeper rise 304,000 in payrolls added in January, and on continued impact of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela. Brent crude oil price rose ca +1.94% at $62.02pb, while WTI crude also rose ca +1.62% at $54.66pb, as at report time. Spot gold dropped ca -0.20% day-on-day at $1,322.60 per ounce.
|AIICO Money Market Fund (AMMF)|
|Net Yield (As at current date)||13.15% per annum|
|Added Benefit||Personal accident insurance cover|
|AIICO Capital Guaranteed Income Note (GIN) Rates p.a.|
|Amount (NGN)||30 Days||60 Days||90 Days||180 Days||364 Days|
|10,000,001 – 50,000,000||10.00||10.50||11.00||12.00||13.00|
|50,000,001 – 100,000,000||11.00||11.25||11.50||12.50||14.00|
|100,000,001 – 400,000,000||12.00||12.25||12.50||13.00||14.50|
|Trading Treasury Bills Rates p.a.|
|Maturity Dates||Tenor (Days)||Discount Rate||Effective Yield|
|Select Macro-economic Indices|
|Inflation % (December 2018)||11.44 (-25.57% ytd)|
|PMI (December 2018)||61.10|
|MPR (%)||14 (-5%/+2% around mid-point)|
|Brent Crude Price US$ pbbl||62.02 (+1.94% d/d)|
|External Reserve (US$’billion)||43.17 (+0.11% ytd)|
|GDP % (Q3 2018)||+1.81% (Q2 2018: +1.50% y/y)|
|NSE All Share Index (ASI)||30,636.36 (+0.26% d/d; -2.53% ytd)|
|Market Capitalisation (₦’Trillion)||11.42|